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புதன், 29 ஜனவரி, 2020

Tamil Nadu assembly election 2021 - Prediction

Battle 2021!

It’s very early to write about the Tamil Nadu legislative assembly elections 2021. We still have 1 year for the election. 1 year is very long term with respective politics. Because anything and everything is possible in politics. I am not sure how my prediction before one year will be correct. Let me give a try by explaining with the current situation in Tamil Nadu.

AIADMK Government

AIADMK is in power for the past 9 years. The anti incumbency on ADMK government was very less during the first term and it has grown exponentially in the second term. Especially, the anti incumbency got doubled after the death of Jayalalithaa. AIADMK’s close association with BJP and BJP’s Anti Tamil Nadu schemes are the major reason for this. AIADMK has literally destroyed the state of Tamil Nadu in all the means. All the rights which were protected by our former leaders were brutally destroyed in the past 4 years. We can even call this as one of the Dark age for the state of Tamil Nadu. If my predictions are correct, AIADMK will never win more than 20 seats in the 2021 election.

National Parties

National parties such as BJP, Congress, CPM and CPI have no big impact in Tamil Nadu without alliance. They don’t have big vote bank in the state. They have always succeeded only with the support of Regional parties such as DMK and ADMK. Even in 2021 assembly election, all these national parties will form alliance with the regional parties and contest the election. Among all the national parties, BJP will face a huge defeat in the state irrespective of the alliance partner. BJP doesn’t have any vote bank in Tamil Nadu. Anti Tamil Nadu speeches by the local BJP leaders and Anti people laws will be the major factor behind the BJP’s defeat. Even in 2021, BJP will not open any account in Tamil Nadu. Either they will remain behind the NOTA or slightly above the NOTA.Congress, CPM and CPI will altogether 20–30 seats in the 2021 assembly election.

Kamal and Rajini

Kamal Haasan has already started a party and contested in the Parliament election. By contesting alone, He has secured 3% of votes in 2019 parliament election. Rajini has just announced that he will form his party and contest in 2021 election. With the current situation, Kamal seems to be pro majority Tamil Nadu people’s mindset and Rajini seems to be anti majority Tamil Nadu people’s mindset. If my predictions are correct, Kamal will split DMK’s votes. If Kamal join hands with DMK in the 2021 election, he has a good chance of establishing his party in the state with at least few MLAs.

As far as Rajini is concerned, I am not sure whether he will form any political party and contest in the election. Even if he forms the party, he will not win much. Rather than winning, he will be the biggest spoiler in the 2021 election. He will be the biggest spoiler for both ADMK and DMK. Among the both, ADMK will be the biggest victim. And if Rajini joins BJP directly, he will land up getting big zero in the 2021 election. By contesting alone or by contesting with alliance, I am not sure Rajini will create any impact in 2021 election.

In cinema, Rajini is greater than Kamal. But in Politics, Kamal will taken an edge over Rajini.

Small Parties

Apart form the national parties, there are few important regional players such as PMK, MDMK, VCK, Kongu Nadu Party, Puthiya Tamilagam, NTK, AMMK and few others. They will play a significant role in the 2021 election. These parties will play crucial role in getting votes for their alliance in the specific region for their alliance partners. Among all the key regional players, PMK and Puthiya Tamilagam party will suffer in 2021 election. Unstable in their stand and frequent change in the alliance will affect them. Apart from these two parties, all other parties will get decent number of seats in the 2021 election. These parties will get around 10–20 seats.


If my predictions are correct, 2021 election will be one of the important election for DMK. It will be a Do or Die situation for DMK. DMK will be center of attraction. 2021 election will be purely around DMK. It will be like DMK vs Anti DMK winning group election. It will be one of the challenging election for DMK. Alliance Partners, Political Strategy, Reactions towards the Anti DMK winning group will be key challenge before DMK. DMK has the experience in managing all these things. I am confident that, DMK will overcome all the challenges and emerge as single largest party in 2021 election. Going one step ahead, DMK will get absolute majority in 2021 election if they contest in 150+ seats. DMK should be very careful in handling the alliance partners in order to get the absolute majority.

If everything goes well, my prediction for 2021 is.. DMK and it’s alliance will be the clear winner for 2021 election.

This answer is purely a prediction. Anything may happen in Politics. I have written this answer with the current situation in Tamil Nadu. Let’s see what happen


Praveen Kumar Rajendran

(29th Jan, 2020).
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Item Reviewed: Tamil Nadu assembly election 2021 - Prediction Rating: 5 Reviewed By: Praveen Kumar Rajendran